Numismatic Gold Coin Pricing: the US Mint’s Response

The US Mint adopted its numismatic gold coin pricing policy on January 12, 2009. The policy categorically states that the Mint can align the prices of gold and platinum pieces with the prevailing market prices of these metals, adjustable on a weekly basis. Earlier, the price adjustment used to be a long drawn process with the requirement for issuing a public notice before any such move. This procedure effectively took weeks, during which the trading in coins would remain suspended. Since the adoption of the policy, the Mint has adhered to it. Taking the procedure charted out in a notification published in the Federal Register, the average of London Fix prices over a week is used to determine the price adjustment for the collector’s pieces. However, on May 27, 2010, the authorities did not reduce the price of the gold coins in response to the decline in the London Fix gold prices.

Four days later, the Mint explained its action in a statement released on May 31, 2010. The official communication revealed that the price fixation of the coins is determined ‘primarily’ based on the Fed Register method, but not solely on it. Reiterating the mission of the pricing policy, the statement mentioned, “The new policy was adopted to ensure that the United States Mint is able to recover all costs associated with gold and platinum products, while keeping changes in prices to a minimum.” Apparently, the internal policy that comes into play only in some exceptional circumstances was invoked this week.

As per this rule, the Wednesday PM Fix is used as a reference point for assessing the trend with the view to keep the change in valuations to the least. If the average falls above the existing range, while the Wednesday Fix falls within the range, the prices will remain untouched. On the other hand, if the average is lower than the range, while the Wednesday Fix remains within the range, the prices do not fall. Such was the point in the case for the week ending with the AM Fix on Wednesday, May 26. The Mint also clarified that there exists yet another parameter for consideration. “Additional criteria based on the Wednesday PM fix address changes of more than one range, as well as spikes in the market, which could cause the average to be above the existing range, while the Wednesday PM fix is below the existing range, or vice-versa,” the statement mentioned.

How Does Gold's Value Change with the Stock Market?

There is a common misconception in the financial world that gold moves in the opposite direction of the stock market. This unfortunate interpretation of historical data produces a misleading image that often results in confusion and bewilderment among investors when the two markets periodically move in the same direction.

Negative Correlation or No Correlation?

In order for gold and the stock market to move in opposite directions, there would need to be a negative correlation between gold and stocks. There is no evidence that such a correlation exists and, if there was, and it was true that gold moved in the opposite direction of stocks, it would greatly reduce gold's value as an investment alternative.

If gold and the stock market were on the proverbial see-saw that a negative correlation necessarily implies, there would be no reason for long-term investors to invest in both. The proper decision would be for individuals to choose which ever one outperformed the other over the long-term.

Fortunately, individuals are not faced with such a dilemma.

The fact of the matter is, gold is NOT negatively correlated to the stock market. Nor is it positively correlated to the stock market.

There is NO discernible correlation between gold and the stock market.

Gold: An Independent Asset

In other words, gold reacts independent of stocks, to economic and political factors and market events.

This makes gold the ideal diversifier for a portfolio of stocks. The reason for this is because of the unpredictable nature of world events.

When you get right down to it, consistently predicting near-term and medium-term movements in the stock market is just about impossible. No one has done so with any success to date and no one has developed any trading system that has done so over the long haul.

The same can be said of the gold market. No one has a crystal ball with which to predict the movements in gold either.

Likewise, no one can predict with certainty the timing and nature of the next economic crisis or perhaps the next terrorist attack. All of these kinds of factors impact the financial markets—including the stock market and gold market—and thus need to be accounted for.

Gold: Protection Against Inevitable Uncertainty

The best way to protect your portfolio against unpredictable events in the financial markets, the economy and the geopolitical arena is to diversify as completely as possible. This means not just diversifying across industry by selecting stocks of companies which are engaged in varying lines of business, it means diversifying across asset classes. In addition to a diversified portfolio of stocks from a variety of industries, individuals absolutely must include gold in their portfolio.

Why?

Because gold has no correlation with the stock market. The best way to achieve the stability of your portfolio is to include an asset that is as unpredictable vis a vis stocks as the very events which impact the stock market.

We know from history that gold will not react in the same way as the stock market to crisis, hyperinflation, depression, and other turmoil. This is what makes gold so vital for all people.

No one knows what to expect next from the financial world. One day the stock market is doing just fine and the next a storied name like Merrill Lynch is being bailed out in a deal put together by the Feds. One day the world is calm and the next a 23 year old tries to blow up an airliner over Detroit.

We can't change the unpredictability of future events and the stock market's reaction to those events, but there is something we can do to help protect our wealth from the fallout, and that is to own gold.

ITM Trading offers expert advice on buying St. Gaudens and other rare gold coins.